Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) Stock Research Report post-Q1 2026: earnings, valuation, tariff impact, growth outlook, and price targets from forecasts.
📌 Executive Summary
Rubrik (NASDAQ: RBRK), a fast-emerging leader in cyber resilience, delivered a blockbuster Q1 FY2026. The company is riding powerful macro and regulatory tailwinds, reinforced by surging demand for cloud-based, AI-integrated identity and data protection. With $1.18B in Subscription ARR (+38% YoY) and free cash flow of $33M, Rubrik continues to gain traction across healthcare, government, and enterprise verticals. Despite strong growth and expanding margins, the current valuation at ~$98/share is considered overextended versus fair value estimates.
⚙️ Key Metrics Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $97.91 |
| 52-Week Range | $28.34 – $103.00 |
| Market Cap | $18.93B |
| P/E (TTM) | -13.09 (GAAP-negative) |
| EPS (TTM) | -$7.48 |
| Free Cash Flow (Q1) | $33M |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 80.5% |
| FCF Margin FY2026 (Guided) | ~6% |
🚀 Infographic Summary
🔼 Subscription ARR Growth
- Q1 FY2026 Subscription ARR: $1.18B
- YoY Growth: +38%
- Trend: Continues upward with strong net new ARR and cloud traction.
🚨 Valuation Status
- Overvalued at current price of $97.91
- Trading at ~15x sales, 100x forward P/E
- DCF & peer analysis imply ~120–160% premium to intrinsic value
💵 Current Price
- Stock Price: $97.91
- 52-Week Range: $28.34 – $103.00
- Up >200% from lows
- Volume 2x average = speculative momentum risk
🏆 Strategic Highlights
- Identity & Cloud Security Focus: Core to platform differentiation
- Raised $100B+ TAM Estimate: Now positioned as cyber resilience category leader
- Positive Free Cash Flow: $33M in Q1; FY2026 guidance up to $75M
💡 Investment Thesis
| 🧩 Reason | 📋 Description |
|---|---|
| 🔐 Platform Leadership | Security Cloud winning large enterprise with identity + recovery-first architecture |
| ☁️ Cloud Transformation | $972M cloud ARR (+60%) reflects deep enterprise adoption |
| 🤖 GenAI Integration | Annapurna & Laminar unify GenAI and DSPM in security layer |
| 💵 Free Cash Flow Positive | FCF of $33M in Q1 with guided $65–75M for FY2026 |
| 🎯 TAM Expansion | Total Addressable Market revised to $100B+ with regulatory tailwinds |
| 👥 Strong Enterprise Penetration | 2,381 customers >$100K ARR (85% of base) |
| 📈 Operating Leverage | 1,800 bps YoY margin improvement in ARR contribution |
| 🔁 Recurring Revenue Model | Subscription revenue up 54% YoY to $266M |
| 🧠 Innovation Cycle | Proprietary AI-powered data security innovations drive platform stickiness |
🌍 Macro Trends Breakdown
The Good 🌟
- Rising cyber threats make resilience essential.
- Strong compliance mandates (HIPAA, GDPR, SEC, DORA).
- Multi-cloud, SaaS, and GenAI adoption fuels infrastructure shifts.
The Bad 💩
- Q3 seasonality and gross margin dips may spook growth investors.
- Valuation pressure post-IPO; near-term perfection priced in.
- Elevated R&D intensity required to defend moat.
The Ugly 🤯 (Trump Tariff Analysis)
-
Tariffs on April 2, 2025 (“Liberation Day”) could increase costs of China-linked components.
-
Positives:
- Rubrik’s cloud-first architecture = minimal hardware exposure.
- Likely beneficiary of Buy-American cyber procurement rules.
- Public sector reliance on U.S.-based vendors may increase.
⏳ Short-Term Outlook (1–2 Years)
🔍 Growth Catalysts
- DSPM from Laminar + identity recovery modules scaling rapidly.
- Google Cloud + Oracle integrations boost cross-platform presence.
- GenAI-driven backup anomaly detection (Annapurna) expands moat.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
- Margin compression in Q3 could challenge valuation.
- CrowdStrike, Zscaler, and Veeam push identity-integrated defense.
- Execution risks in Laminar and GenAI rollout.
🏁 Verdict:
Rating: ⚠️ Hold / Buy on Pullbacks Rationale: Great business, poor entry price at ~$98. Best accumulated in $70–$80 zone.
🌅 Long-Term Outlook (3+ Years)
📈 Structural Growth Drivers
- Convergence of identity + data security → emerging moat.
- AI-integrated anomaly detection, backup restoration = clear differentiator.
- Recurring SaaS revenue, NRR >120%, and global vertical expansion (healthcare, gov, finance).
🧱 Potential Long-Term Hurdles
- GAAP unprofitability must narrow to appeal to broader investor base.
- International compliance (data localization laws) adds complexity.
- Top-heavy client mix: >85% revenue from large customers.
✅ Final Long-Term Verdict:
Rating: 🟢 Strong Buy Rationale: TAM expansion, strong execution, and AI-leveraged IP = multi-year compounding potential.
📊 Key Financial Highlights
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription ARR | $1.18B | +38% |
| Cloud ARR | $972M | +60% |
| Subscription Revenue | $266M | +54% |
| Total Revenue | $278M | +49% |
| Free Cash Flow | $33M | +$70M YoY |
| Gross Margin (non-GAAP) | 80.5% | +510 bps |
| $100K+ Customers | 2,381 | +28% |
📈 Forward Financial Estimates
| FY | Revenue ($B) | Subscription ARR ($B) | FCF ($M) | EPS (Adj.) | Fwd P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (Guided) | 1.18–1.19 | 1.38–1.39 | 65–75 | $0.38–$0.44 | ~100x |
| 2027 (Est.) | 1.5 | 1.7 | 100 | $0.60 | ~63x |
| 2028 (Est.) | 1.9 | 2.1 | 150 | $0.85 | ~44x |
| 2029 (Est.) | 2.3 | 2.6 | 220 | $1.10 | ~34x |
🔍 Peer Valuation Analysis
| Company | P/S | Fwd P/E | EBITDA Margin | Revenue Growth | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik | ~15x | ~100x | 12% (Adj.) | 33–34% | 120%+ |
| CrowdStrike | 22x | 90x | 18% | 30%+ | 123% |
| Zscaler | 18x | 110x | 15% | 30–35% | ~125% |
| Veeam (Private) | NA | NA | ~20% | ~10–15% | ~105% |
📌 Commentary: Rubrik is priced at a premium valuation, justified by hypergrowth and cloud-native differentiation, but trails peers on margin maturity.
🧾 Insider & Institutional Sentiment
- 🚫 No large insider selling post-IPO → confidence signal.
- ✅ Institutional buying post-Q1 earnings (T. Rowe, Lightspeed, Greylock).
- 📈 Quant funds added positions after volume breakout.
🧮 Valuation & Intrinsic Value
| Method | Value/Share | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| DCF | $36–$38 | Based on 25% CAGR, 9% WACC, 4% terminal |
| Earnings-Based (PEG ~3.2x) | $42–$45 | Fair if growth sustains |
| Peer Benchmarking | $45–$55 | Fully priced vs comps |
🚨 Takeaway:
At $97.91, Rubrik is overvalued by ~120–160% vs. DCF and earnings models.
💵 Dividend Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | 0% |
| Policy | Reinvesting in growth |
🌱 ESG & Shariah Compliance
| Category | Commentary |
|---|---|
| ESG Rating | Above-average, strong focus on privacy & AI ethics |
| Shariah Compliant | ✅ Yes – no interest-bearing revenue |
| Governance | Founder-led, transparent board structure |
| Environmental | Targeting carbon neutrality by 2030 |
🧭 Final Investment Summary & Key Takeaways
- Rubrik is a category creator in cyber resilience, with growth driven by AI, identity security, and regulatory compliance.
- Business model shows positive operating leverage, high retention, and robust ARR.
- Valuation near $98/share is rich, but company fundamentals remain sound.
- Long-term compounding potential remains intact.
🎯 Final Recommendation
| Time Horizon | Rating | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (6–12 mo) | ⚠️ Hold / Buy on Dips | Wait for consolidation; avoid chasing highs |
| Long-Term (2–5 yrs) | 🟢 Strong Buy | TAM expansion + tech leadership + cash flow tailwinds |
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this research report is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as...