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🌀 Week 23, June 2025: The Everything Storm 🌪️📈

AI Euphoria, Rate Roulette, and a Bitcoin Blitz: Welcome to the Chaos Carnival 🎪

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2️⃣ Introduction:

If the markets had a theme song this week, it’d be “Don’t Stop Me Now” by Queen. We witnessed Nvidia dethrone Microsoft, Bitcoin become Wall Street’s favorite son, and Powell trending harder than pop stars. Meanwhile, the Fed is walking a policy tightrope, and sovereign bonds are basically screaming, “We need therapy.”

Stocks soared, commodities popped, and the bond market had a full-blown existential meltdown. Whether you’re a diamond-handed HODLer or a fundamentals-first value hawk, this week was a firehose of data, drama, and dollar swings.

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3️⃣ Macro Trends Breakdown:

🌟 The Good:

• 🏆 Nvidia Takes the Crown: Market cap hits $3.46T—AI chips are officially the new oil.

• 📦 Amazon & Meta’s Infrastructure Binge: Amazon drops $100B on AI infra, Meta secures 1,121 MW of nuclear power—energy and semis are riding tailwinds.

• 💼 Jobs & Labor Market:

  • May added 139K jobs (above expectations).
  • JOLTS shows 7.39M job openings.
  • ADP came in soft at 37K, but overall sentiment is stable.

• 📈 Services Boom: PMI prints at 53.7—resilient U.S. services.

• 💰 Bitcoin Goes Institutional:

  • BlackRock adds $877M BTC in a day.
  • Total holdings: 643,000 BTC. Bulls are stampeding.

• 🌍 Trade Optimism:

  • Deficit shrinks from -$138B to -$61B.
  • US-China trade talks resuming in London.

• 📊 Equity Breakouts:

  • S&P 500 > 6,000 🚀
  • Nasdaq +1.97% W/W, HK50 +2.16% W/W, up +29.5% YoY.

• 📞 Communication Services: +3.11% W/W, +22.88% YoY—ad tech and social media rebound.

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💩 The Bad:

• 🧨 Derivatives Delusion: Crypto traders betting on $300K BTC in three weeks. Pure hopium.

• 🏭 Manufacturing Struggles:

  • ISM PMI at 48.5.
  • Factory orders down 3.7%.
  • Employment and new orders still weak.

• 📉 ADP Misses Big: Just 37K jobs added vs 115K expected.

• 💸 Inflation Hiccups:

  • Unit labor costs up 6.6% Q1.
  • ISM Prices Paid at 69.4 = sticky inflation.

• 🚘 Used Car Deflation: -1.4% MoM = demand fading.

• 🥱 Consumer Defensive Doldrums: Staples down -1.28% W/W. Risk-on rotation leaves Pepsi and Clorox behind.

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🤯 The Ugly:

• 💣 Bond Market Meltdown:

  • 30Y yield hits 5.15%.
  • Foreign outflows & Section 899 scare = serious flight risk.

• 🪙 Fiat Faith Crisis: $324T global debt, endless deficits, and monetization—central banks under fire.

• 🔥 Powell Pressure: Rumors of resignation spark speculation. If true, Bitcoin and gold will moon.

• 🗾 Japan’s BOJ in Trouble: Near insolvency. Other central banks may follow.

• ⚡ Europe’s Energy Shock: Spanish electricity prices up 63% in a week due to heatwaves & bottlenecks.

• 🏠 Real Estate Ice Age: Despite a 0.59% weekly gain, CRE remains underwater long-term (-6.52% over 6M).

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4️⃣ Investing Insights:

💪 Sectors Poised to Outperform:

• 🧠 AI & Semiconductors: Nvidia, AMD, Palantir, Broadcom—riding the GPU tsunami.
• 📡 Communication Services: Meta, Alphabet, Spotify—the ad and content engines are revving.
• 🏗️ Industrials & Logistics: Freight index +8% W/W. Global reshoring, aerospace demand climbing.
• 🌱 Natural Gas & LNG: +9.78% W/W. Geo shocks + El Niño = bullish setups.
• ⚙️ Export-Driven Industrials: Benefiting from EU-Asia trade uptick—machinery and semis win.
• 🪙 Metals (Silver +9%, Platinum +11.8%): Riding clean energy and green tech waves.
• ☕ Soft Commodities: Coffee, cocoa, lean hogs = weather + inflation hedge.

⚡ Sectors at Risk:

• 📉 US Treasuries: Foreign demand drying up, and Section 899 = radioactive risk.
• 🛍️ Consumer Discretionary: Wage pressure + used goods deflation = red flags.
• 🔋 EV Sector: Higher charging costs, lower gas prices—temporary shift away from EVs.
• 🏥 Healthcare: Regulatory overhang, weak earnings—UnitedHealth, Merck, Regeneron bleeding.
• 💡 Utilities: -1.01% W/W—boring when growth names dazzle.
• 🏗️ Real Estate: Still a landmine, especially CRE and rate-sensitive areas.

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5️⃣ Biggest Risks Ahead:

1. ⚖️ Fed Flip-Flop: Data whiplash + sticky inflation = unpredictable policy.
2. 🔥 Bond Contagion: Foreign selling + rising yields = unstable debt markets.
3. 🏦 Central Bank Credibility: BOJ is cracking. Could be the canary in the coal mine.
4. 🌍 Geopolitical Tensions: Red Sea, Taiwan, Ukraine, Iran—all bubbling.
5. 🌪️ Climate Shocks: El Niño intensifies commodity volatility.
6. 💻 Tech Valuation Fatigue: Multiples are nosebleed-high. Air pockets possible.

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6️⃣ Final Take: Investment Strategy Recommendations 💡

🛡️ Defensive Positions:

• Allocate to precious metals, real assets, and short-term Treasuries (cautiously).
• Hold dividend aristocrats and defensive blue chips (e.g., Visa, JPM).
• Use covered calls on overbought tech to earn premium.

🚀 Aggressive Plays:

• AI Infrastructure: Nvidia, Palantir, Meta, Broadcom, Salesforce.
• Crypto (Spot ETFs Only): BTC exposure via regulated products—avoid degen options.
• Cyclicals & Recovery: Amazon, Tesla, Capital One, logistics names.
• Tactical Commodities: Cocoa, coffee, uranium—tight supply meets rising demand.

📊 Portfolio Tips:

• Barbell Strategy: Growth + value mix. Don’t go all-in on frothy tech.
• FX Hedging: Consider NOK, AUD, and EUR for diversification.
• Global Equity Tilt: Blend in Eurozone banks, African telecoms, and Asia tech.
• Real Asset Allocations: Infrastructure, ag commodities, transition metals.

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7️⃣ Conclusion:

“Markets don’t crash when people are scared… they crash when they’re all-in.”

Right now, euphoria is in full swing—AI is hot, Bitcoin is cool again, and everyone’s chasing the next breakout. But under the hood, central banks are strained, bond markets are bleeding, and valuations are frothy.

It’s 2025—but it’s starting to smell like late 2021.

🎢 Enjoy the ride, but keep your seatbelt fastened.

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🔮 Next Week Preview:

• Will Powell drop the mic?
• Will copper finally break $5/lb?
• Can the euro keep crushing the dollar?

Stay hedged. Stay smart. Stay ready. 💼📉🚀

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